EUR/USD – Can Expect A Bullish Breakout Following The Brief Pullback

Long Position

  • Take Profit: 1.1025
  • Stop Loss : 1.0850
  • Timeline: 1-2 days

Short Position

  • Sell Stop : 1.0875
  • Take Profit: 1.0800
  • Stop Loss : 1.0950

The Juneteenth holiday resulted in low trading volume as US markets were closed, causing the pair to fall to 1.0920, only a few points below this week’s high of 1.0967. As the stochastic oscillator retreated, the price fell below the 23.6% retracement line. The RSI has dropped below the oversold level, but the price has held its ground, remaining slightly above the 25-day moving average. The chances of a bullish breakout is there for the time being, but a dip below 1.0900 may invalidate it.

The European Central Bank had declared a 0.25% rate hike, but the FED has maintained its interest rate policy unchanged, resulting in a policy divergence between the EU and the US. The head of New York’s central bank, John Williams, will also be sharing his thoughts on interest rates, which we can look forward to because his stance has always been hawkish from the start. Another important event for the pair is Jerome Powell’s speech about the current inflation and interest rate policy.

The next significant economic data release to watch for fundamental analysts is the US building permits and home starts data. Economists have projected a sharp drop in house starts statistics, but they have predicted an increase in building permits. However, these data releases may have little impact on the EUR/USD pair pricing because the Fed and ECB interest rate decisions have already set the trajectory for the pair.